7 am Advisory — A Disorganized Fred is Moving Between Eastern Cuba & the Southeastern Bahamas

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT INFORMATION:

LOCATION…20.7N 74.2W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 80 MI…175 KM NE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1011 MB…29.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives
* Southeastern Bahamas
* The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK:

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend. Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands recently reported a wind gust of
39 mph (63 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:

Across the Dominican Republic…3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides.

Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba…1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches.

Across the western Bahamas…3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches.

Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning later today.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details.

Category: ALL POSTS, Tropical