4 pm Advisory – Hurricane Warnings Issued for Portions of the Northern Gulf Coast
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…22.1N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI…70 KM NW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana
* Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 83.2 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue until Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. A slower northward motion is forecast after Ida reaches the northern Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass over western Cuba during the next several hours, and then move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico later tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated while Ida moves over western Cuba this evening. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) has recently been reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected to continue through tonight in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.
4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical