4 pm Advisory — Ida Continues to Rapidly Strengthen Over the Gulf of Mexico

SUMMARY OF 4 PM CDT INFORMATION
LOCATION…26.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 240 MI…385 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 325 MI…525 KM SE OF HOUMA, LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH…26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…976 MB…28.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City, Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border

FORECAST DISCUSSION
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 87.0 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi later on Monday and Monday night.

Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42003, located about 90 miles (145 km) east of the eye, reported peak one-minuted sustained winds of 54 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) within the past hour or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

KEY MESSAGES

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area.

3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages.

4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday.

HAZARDS TO LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River…10-15 ft
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne…7-11 ft
* Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…6-9 ft
* Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border…4-7 ft
* Lake Pontchartrain…5-8 ft
* Lake Maurepas…4-6 ft
* Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA…3-5 ft
* MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…2-4 ft
* Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA…1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts.

Elsewhere, across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley — considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and riverine flooding impacts.

Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba this evening as the storm continues to lift northward away from the island. Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches possible across western Cuba through this evening. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across the northern Gulf coast states, including parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

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Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical