Perfect Fall Day

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It appears we are in for a perfect Fall day today, just the kind of day I associate with October. But that will change quickly as moisture returns quickly from the southwest thanks in part to Tropical Depression Olaf.

A cold front was moving steadily through Alabama this morning with much drier air coming into the state from the northwest. Dew points were already in the 40s across a nice chunk of the northwest corner of the state, so it will be much drier today. A little fog had developed over the eastern sections but that should burn off quickly leading to a gorgeous day with highs in the upper 70s – perhaps hitting 80 a little further south.

We should start the day out nicely Sunday with lows in the lower 50s and some spots dipping into the upper 40s. But moisture from the southwest will provide a day of increasing clouds and some chance of rain by late afternoon or early evening. I favor the later time, but western sections might see rain by late afternoon. Rain should increase over night and into Monday with Monday a somewhat wet day. Monday should be a coolish day with lows starting out in the 60s and highs only climbing into the lower 70s.

Rain chances should stay relatively high on Tuesday dropping off on Wednesday and Thursday. In fact, right now it appears that Thursday could be our driest day of the upcoming week.

The problem and the reason that confidence is not especially high after Tuesday is the divergence of the models. We should see a series of surface lows riding along the front that settles into the northern Gulf later today. This should help to create an overrunning situation by Sunday night and Monday with lots of Pacific moisture to work with. After Tuesday, the model solutions are different on those surface lows, so it is the kind of situation where the forecast will retain some chance of showers.

Rainfall amounts will vary widely but general rains of 1 to 2 inches are possible. Because the moisture is coming out of the Pacific, that is, it is tropical, and since we had a fairly recent wet event that has saturated the soil, there is some risk of flash flooding Monday and Tuesday.

A second slug of tropical moisture arrives Friday as we stay under a southwesterly flow, so we are likely to end the week wet, too. However, the flow seems fairly fast so we should be drying out by midday Saturday.

Tropical Atlantic is quiet. In the Pacific, TD Olaf is coming into Northern Mexico and bringing a large dose of Pacific moisture to Texas and the Southeast US.

And the severe weather scene is quiet, too, with nothing of significance for the next several days.

Long range GFS forecasts suggests another wet period around the 12th of October but cooling off and drying out after that.

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Thanks for tuning in. I’m headed down the mountain to Oxford later today for a visit to their Oktoberfest. I hope you enjoy a beautiful Fall day. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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