An Early Afternoon Look at the Tropics

We see Hurricane Sam passing about 460 miles northeast of San Juan early this afternoon.  Top winds are still 145 mph, making it a strong category four hurricane.  The central pressure is now 941 mb.

Sam is expected to pass about 225 miles east of Bermuda late Friday evening and early Saturday morning. The island should have only occasional gusts to tropical storm force and some squally rains. Otherwise, it should remain well out to sea.

High surf is expected on Atlantic beaches including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast.

Sam is now tied with Ida as the stongest Atlantic hurricane of the season. Sam’s winds briefly reached 150 mph on Sunday afternoon, earning it that designation.

Victor is in the far eastern Atlantic. Victor will curve to the north over the next five says, staying well east of any land areas. It is not expected to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere,

Here is the 1 p.m. Intermediate Advisory on Sam:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
200 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021

…SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY…
…EXPECTED TO BRING DANGEROUS HIGH SURF TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORELINE…

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.1N 60.5W
ABOUT 685 MI…1105 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…941 MB…27.79 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located by
an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.1 North,
longitude 60.5 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 13
mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northwest with an
increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the
north is anticipated by late Friday, and a northeastward motion is
forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of
Sam will pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected
during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a
major hurricane through Saturday, with more significant weakening
anticipated later in the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure measured by the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters is 941 mb (27.79 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Friday night or early Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward
Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the
next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas
by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this
weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical