SPC Mesoscale Discussion — Severe Threat Continues for Next Couple of Hours

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 14 continues.

SUMMARY… The severe threat will continue across much of Tornado Watch 14 for the next 1-2 hours before gradually diminishing this evening.

DISCUSSION… Latest radar data from across southern MS/AL continues to show several clusters of semi-discrete cells. These storms have shown periods of organized mesocyclones, but have struggled to persist for more than an hour or two, largely due to destructive storm interference. However, IR imagery and MRMS vertically integrated ice data continue to show indications of strong updrafts, and the overall environment over southern/southwest AL remains supportive of a severe threat given sufficient buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer shear (around 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear per the latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates). Furthermore, regional VWPs within the warm sector reveal 100-150 SRH in the 0-1 km layer, which will help maintain the potential for organized low-level mesocyclones and an attendant tornado threat. This tornado threat will likely be maximized with any storm that can remain relatively isolated as it matures. At this time, this appears most probable across southern AL.

Latest forecast guidance shows low-level wind fields gradually weakening after 22-23 UTC from west to east as the axis of stronger 850 mb flow shifts east. While this will diminish the tornado potential to a degree, a severe hail/wind threat may persist into the evening hours.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather