A Few Storms Possible Tomorrow

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RIGHT NOW: We actually have a few thin spots in the overcast this afternoon, especially south and west of Birmingham, where temperatures have warmed into the 75 to 80 degree range. But, the state remains generally cloudy, but mostly dry for the northern counties of the state.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: While we should remain mostly dry tonight, we will have one more short wave to deal with tomorrow, which will spin up one more surface wave on our old front draped across the Deep South. The latest model runs are a little more aggressive with instability, and we might have to revisit the idea of a few strong storms around tomorrow. SPC has low end severe weather probabilities on the Day Two Convective Outlook (5 percent or less) for the southern two-thirds of the state. The NAM ramps the surface based CAPE up to 678 j/kg tomorrow afternoon, with a 0 to 1 km helicity peak at 293 m2/s2. So… we will mention a good chance of showers and storms tomorrow, and we will have to be on the lookout for strong storms, maybe even severe in spots. Additional rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are likely, and most of the rain should be over by sunset tomorrow evening.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS seems to be out to lunch… too bright and too warm for Friday and Saturday; we will stick with the WRF/NAM for this forecast. Friday will be a cold air advection day, with a cloudy sky, a chilly north wind, and some risk of morning drizzle. The NAM prints a high of only 54 here (11 degrees colder than the GFS)… and will most likely be very close to being correct. It will be a rather raw day, and you will sure need a good warm jacket for the high school football games Friday with kickoff temperatures close to 50. The sky will be cloudy Friday night, but the weather will be dry.

A strong vort max will round the base of the long wave upper trough over the eastern half of the nation Saturday, and will provide some impressive upward motion in the atmosphere across Alabama. While there won’t be much moisture to work with, I would not be surprised to see a little light rain, or a few showers during the day Saturday. Otherwise, it will be breezy and very cool with a high only in the mid 50s. Part of North Alabama could hold in the 40s all day with north winds of 10 to 20 mph along with a mostly cloudy sky. The sky will clear statewide Saturday night.

Sunday morning will be the coldest so far this season. We are using 39 in our forecast, and most places will wind up somewhere between 37 and 42. The wind will continue through the night, so you probably won’t see much difference between the valleys and ridges. Sunday promises to be a bright sunny day with a high around 60.

MONDAY: This looks like the coldest morning with a clear sky and light wind. We have to wonder if the coldest valleys across North Alabama will be close to freezing at daybreak Monday. Other spots will be in the 38 to 42 degree range, with scattered light frost for the valleys and protected areas. Then, a warming trend begins Monday afternoon with a high close to 70 along with a sunny sky.

REST OF NEXT WEEK: The next rain producing system is due in here over the latter half of next week, but much much consistency in details right now. See the Weather Xtreme video for a look at how the 12Z GFS handles things.

STORM ALERT XTREME: Want to be trained as a storm spotter? Want to join the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher team? Our annual training event, Storm Alert Xtreme, is coming up on Saturday November 14 at the BJCC during the annual Birmingham International Auto Show. You will be trained by the best SKYWARN trainer in the nation, our own Brian Peters (he has trained over 6,000 Alabama storm spotters over the years). We encourage all of our Skywatchers to attend this every year; you simply cannot get enough training. We will begin at 9:30, and be out by 3:30. And, everyone that attends Storm Alert Xtreme gets free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show. There is no admission charge, and no need to register. Just show up, but get there early for a good seat. We had a packed house last year.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I had a great time seeing the 3rd graders today at Mount Laurel Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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