Latest Mesoscale Discussion — Watch Possible for Northeastern Parts of Area

| March 22, 2022 @ 5:04 pm

Probability of Watch Issuance… 40 percent

SUMMARY… A conditional severe threat may develop with the approaching squall line across southern-Middle Tennessee if adequate moisture can arrive on time. A couple of damaging gusts would be the main threat, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION… A mature QLCS with a history of damaging gusts and tornadoes is approaching portions of southern-Middle Tennessee. Ahead of the QLCS, temperatures are in the mid-70s F surface dewpoints, with dewpoints approaching 57 F. At the moment, buoyancy is scant ahead of the squall, and RAP forecast soundings suggest that dewpoints need to reach or exceed 59 F before convection can become sufficiently rooted in the surface-layer to ingest the abundant low-level streamwise vorticity to otherwise support a more appreciable severe threat. Latest surface observations have shown up to 59 F surface dewpoints across Lauderdale County, AL. As such, it is possible that enough surface-based buoyancy may advect ahead of the line into far southern-Middle TN to support the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado. Either way, conditions will continue to be monitored increasing buoyancy into TN and the need for a possible WW issuance.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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