Hurricane Watch on the Gulf Coast

FAST FACTS ON IDA
9:00 AM CST Sun Nov 8
Location: 21.2°N 86.0°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 983 mb

HIGHLIGHTS
…Hurricane Watch issued from Grand Isle LA to AL/MS Border

…Very complex forecast with the potential for Ida to lose tropical characteristics, but not perhaps before bringing hurricane force winds to parts of the Gulf Coast
…I wouldn’t be surprised to see the hurricane watch or eventual warnings shifted eastward to include the Alabama coast and much of the Northwest Florida Coast

COASTAL WIND IMPACTS
…Tropical storm force winds will arrive in Plaquemines Parish in SE LA around noon Monday
…Tropical storm force winds will reach the Alabama coast by 5 p.m. Monday
…Strong tropical storm force winds (>58 mph) may reach Mobile and Baldwin Counties just after midnight early Tuesday
…Hurricane force winds may affect southern Baldwin County starting around dawn Tuesday morning, lasting for 2-3 hours…
…Coastal areas from Pensacola to Seaside may experience brief hurricane force winds during the day Tuesday as the center moves eastward

INLAND WIND IMPACTS – ALABAMA
…Tropical storm force winds may reach as far north as an arc from Grove Hill to Evergreen to Florala by 3 a.m. Tuesday…
…Tropical storm force winds may reach as far inland as Selma and Montgomery during the day Tuesday as as the center moves eastward.
…Further north…winds are expected to average 20-35 mph as far north as Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Anniston Monday night and Tuesday morning with some higher gusts. This could bring down some limbs and causes scattered power outages.

RAINFALL
3-4 inches of rain is expected to fall across central Alabama generally south of I-20 and north of I-65/85. Amounts will taper downward to the north and south of this maximum area.

TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

…CENTER OF IDA MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL…HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…

AT 900 AM CST…1500 UTC…A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 900 AM CST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES…
120 KM…NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 80 MILES…125 KM…
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LIKELY BY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK….THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY…AND BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH…150 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TODAY…WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED ON MONDAY. IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON TUESDAY AS IT NEARS THE GULF COAST…BUT IT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB…29.03 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA…WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NEAR THE COAST…THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

…SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST INFORMATION…
LOCATION…21.2N 86.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…983 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1200 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

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