7 pm Update: Ian Approaching the Western Parts of Cuba

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…20.8 N, 83.3 W
ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB…28.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
* Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Anclote River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
* Flamingo to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* Aucilla River to Anclote River
* Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line
* Saint Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River
* Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass
* Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 83.3 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move near or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba, and remain a major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay…5-10 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River…5-8 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL…5-8 ft
* Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor…4-7 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to East Cape Sable, FL…3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound including St. Johns River…2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable, FL to Card Sound Bridge, FL including Florida Bay…2-4 ft
* Aucilla River to Suwannee River…2-4 ft
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas…2-4 ft
* Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River…1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of western Cuba in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area tonight and early Tuesday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba tonight. Destructive winds are possible where the core of Ian moves across western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possibly beginning by Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by Tuesday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday into early Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the lower Florida Keys and are possible in the watch area in the middle Florida Keys on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through Thursday:

* Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 8 inches.
* Coastal Southwest and Southeast Florida: 4 to 6 inches, with local maxima up to 10 inches.
* Central West Florida: 6 to 12 inches, with local maxima up to 20 inches.
* Northeast Florida: 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches.
* Remainder of the Central Florida Peninsula: 4 to 8 inches.

Heavy rainfall is expected to affect the Southeast U.S. Friday and Saturday. Widespread considerable flash and urban flooding, and prolonged significant river flooding impacts are likely mid-to-late week across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina. Flash and urban flooding impacts are also possible with rainfall across the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through mid-week. Limited flooding impacts and rises on area streams and rivers are also possible over portions of the Southeast mid-to-late week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight and Tuesday across the Florida Keys and the southern/central Florida Peninsula.

SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Swells will spread northwestward to the southwestern coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico tonight. Swells are expected to begin affecting the Florida Keys Tuesday and spread northward along the west coast of Florida through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical