TS Nicole Approaching the Northwestern Bahamas; New Storm Surge Warning Issues

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
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LOCATION…26.5N 76.7W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI…340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* The Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas
* Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Bimini in the northwestern Bahamas
* Hallandale Beach Florida to Boca Raton Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Line Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida
* Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Hallandale Beach to Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* South of North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach Florida
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* South of Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef Florida

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over the Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas today and move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Nicole is forecast to become a hurricane near the northwestern Bahamas and remain a hurricane when it reaches the east coast of Florida tonight. Nicole is expected to weaken while moving across Florida and the southeastern United States Thursday through Friday, and it is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night over the Mid-Atlantic states.

Nicole is a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 460 miles (740 km) especially to the north of the center. A station at Bakers Bay on Great Guana Cay recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 63 mph (101 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the northwestern Bahamas, and hurricane conditions are expected to spread westward in areas in hurricane warning area through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring along portions of the east coast of Florida and will spread northward within the warning area through Georgia and South Carolina today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight or Thursday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the west coast of Florida by this evening or tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

* North Palm Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge…3 to 5 ft
* Anclote River to Ochlockonee River…3 to 5 ft
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South Carolina…2 to 4 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown Florida…2 to 4 ft
* Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach…2 to 4 ft
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass…2 to 4 ft
* Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay…1 to 3 ft
* North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay…1 to 2 ft
* South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina…1 to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday night:

Northwest Bahamas into the eastern, central and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches.

Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians, western Mid-Atlantic, and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge.

Northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of New England: 1 to 4 inches.

Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today into Thursday. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and New England Thursday into Friday night, where limited flooding impacts will be possible.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through Thursday across eastern Florida, southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.

SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical