Active Weather In The Days Ahead

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NO DULL MOMENTS: Looks like a very interesting ride on the weather roller coaster for the rest of December; we will have two events to deal with during the next five days, and we will have to consider the chance of severe storms with the first one, and some wintry precipitation with the second one.

TODAY: Sure won’t feel like severe thunderstorm type weather today. Our weather will be cloudy and cool with temperatures in the 40s all day. A shower or two is possible, but the most widespread should remain to the west of Alabama. And, way out west, a major early season winter storm will begin to develop over the Southwest U.S. Flagstaff, Arizona is expecting 18 inches of snow from this one, and the main snow band will be running from Denver to Detroit through Wednesday.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: No snow here, of course, from this system. In fact, a screaming southerly jet at 850 mb (5,000 feet) will set up late tomorrow, and helicity values off the chart, we will have to consider a chance of severe weather here. During the day, rain is likely as winds increase, and the main window for severe weather seems to be from about 8:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Wednesday. As usual during the cold season, the big ingredient lacking is instability. Marginal lapse rates and surface heating means surface based CAPE values of 250 j/kg or less tomorrow night. But, over the years we have dealt with a number of damage events with high shear and little CAPE.

SPC maintains a slight risk (their standard risk) of severe weather for all of Alabama tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. We will keep an eye on things as this event gets closer.

HOW MUCH RAIN? The NAM is printing 0.83″ through Wednesday, while the GFS considerably wetter with 2.11″. We will forecast one to two inches of rain, probably not enough for any flooding problems, at least on a widespread basis.

COLDER AIR FOLLOWS THE RAIN: Very cold air covers much of western Canada and the western part of the U.S., and some of that will invade Alabama by Wednesday night and Thursday. We won’t get out of the 40s Thursday, and Friday could even be a bit colder. Remember, the cold air will be fairly shallow, and model output statistics (MOS) products often don’t handle this kind of cold air very well.

LATE WEEK SYSTEM: With cold air in place, here comes our next impulse, which will produce precipitation across the Deep South late Friday, Friday night, into Saturday morning. While we will mention just a cold rain for now, I sure won’t be surprised if we have to consider some risk of snow, or even freezing rain, with this feature later in the week. We need to get the first storm system out of here before we can really focus on that one, but winter weather fans will want to keep up with developments.

WEEKEND PEEK: That precipitation should end Saturday morning, and the rest of the weekend looks cold and dry.

VOODOO LAND: Watch the Weather Xtreme video… you will see the AO (Arctic Oscillation) spikes negative in a big way at big-month, making us wonder if a big Arctic blast will impact much of the nation before Christmas. And, of course, the 06Z GFS has some winter weather fun and games along the way. Again, watch the video for more. No way we can resolve details now, but the pattern sure looks interesting.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Tonight’s guest will be Gary England, longtime TV meteorologist from Oklahoma City. The show will be posted by 11:00 p.m. or so.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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