Mesoscale Discussion — New Watch Possible Within the Next Few Hours
SUMMARY… A gradual increase in convection is expected as the evening progresses, with it a risk of wind and perhaps a tornado or two. A new watch may be warranted.
DISCUSSION… Boundary-layer air mass is expected to gradually respond across the lower MS Valley due to an approaching short-wave trough over Texas. Low-level flow should become a bit more convergent which should encourage additional convective development and perhaps more robust updrafts. Over the last hour or so, a fair number of thunderstorms have matured from south-central LA into east-central MS. Several supercells are observed along this corridor and an upward tick in coverage/intensity may be noted as the evening progresses. Overall, scattered strong/severe thunderstorms should become more noteworthy prior to frontal passage. A new watch may be warranted to account for this risk.
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.Subscribe
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