Big Storm Forming Out West

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PRE-CHRISTMAS STORM: Our long awaited pre-Christmas storm is developing over the Southwest U.S., and promises to bring some wild weather to much of the nation during the next 3 days. But for now, we are enjoying a delightful afternoon with temperatures mostly in the 58 to 62 degree range at 2:00 along with a good supply of sunshine through high clouds.

SNOW AND STORMS: The big snow will be from the eastern plains of Colorado to the Canadian border of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Blizzard conditions are likely by Thursday for much of Nebraska, South Dakota, and parts of Iowa and Minnesota, and travel will be nearly impossible. To the south, SPC maintains their standard risk (slight risk) of severe storms tomorrow for parts of East Texas, East Oklahoma, much of Louisiana, and the western half of Arkansas, where strong to severe storms could very well break out in the warm sector of the developing mid-latitude cyclone.

HERE IN ALABAMA: Clouds will thicken tonight and tomorrow, but the bulk of the rain should remain west of Alabama. Rain and storms will ease into the state Thursday, continuing Thursday night. SPC has a slight risk of severe weather in place Thursday for the far southwest corner of Alabama; up this way the lack of instability is expected to prevent a major severe weather problem. But, the rain could be heavy at times. The NAM is printing 1.04″ of rain for Birmingham through the next 84 hours; we could see isolated totals to two inches. The heaviest rain should fall from about 4:00 p.m. Thursday through 4:00 a.m. Friday.

A CHRISTMAS CHILL: The rain will end during the pre-dawn hours Friday; then Christmas Day will be mostly cloudy and sharply colder, with temperatures falling from near 50 at daybreak, to near 40 by mid-afternoon with a brisk north wind. A secondary low will develop along the South Atlantic coast Friday, but for now the main precipitation with this is expected to stay northeast of our state.

The weekend will stay cold, with generally cloudy weather continuing Saturday and Sunday with highs only in the low to mid 40s.

THE HIT PARADE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE: No, we missed our opportunity for snow with the pre-Christmas storm with the surface low too far north (which is actually an anomaly in this pattern). But, there will be others that most likely will be in the form of traditional Gulf lows. The GFS shows such systems at the middle of next week, over the New Year’s weekend, and again during the first full week of the new year, with each system about four days apart. And, all three of these most likely will feature a chance of wintry precipitation on the northern flank of the system. Who gets rain and who gets snow? No way of knowing now, but the pattern remains cold and unsettled for a while. Don’t be shocked if at least a part of Alabama has one or two winter storm threats during the next four weeks. The pattern simply favors it.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the show notes for last night’s new episode. We had a great time with Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather.

I sure enjoyed seeing the 3rd graders at Verner Elementary in Tuscaloosa this morning; be looking for those kids on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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