Extreme Cold Ahead

There are increasing signs that we are going to see an Arctic outbreak with an intensity and duration that we have not seen in a while.

Next week, we will see a setup that will bring some extremely cold air into Alabama. A big upper low will find itself stranded over the Northeast and eastern Canada. Also stuck in the traffic jam will be a huge Arctic high over Central Canada. The flow between these systems will funnel extremely cold air southward from the Arctic Ocean over a deep snow cover and into the heart of the southern U.S. This pattern will not change for several days due to a big blocking high over Greenland. This will allow several reinforcing shots of cold air to lock us in the deep freeze for much of the next ten days.

We could see four to five days of lows in the teens next week. We have not seen 4 straight days with lows in the teens since December 2000. We could also not get above freezing Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

The storm track stays suppressed to the south because of the intensity of the Arctic airmass. But if any storm systems do spin up, it could mean snow for the Deep South. The real story definitely will be the cold.

Now is the time to start thinking about pipes that could freeze, fuel supplies, vulnerable plant life, pets and friends and neighbors that might not have appropriate shelter. This is a developing situation that will come into clearer focus over the next three days. Please pay close attention to later forecasts.

00z GFS NOT AS COLD
Just a note that the evening run of the GFS is not as cold as this forecast. Not nearly as cold. It is still too early to be paying attention to individual models runs. We will be watching for trends. Never hurts to be prepared.

NEW YEAR’S EVE SNOW
The idea of flurries Thursday night and Friday morning is still a pretty good bet. The 00z GFS run has a stronger disturbance rotating through with a little more snow Thursday night late. That is back to an idea it had earlier. We will see if the returning trend continues.

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