Snow On Thursday; Then Bitter Cold

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Since we are getting close to a snow event for Alabama, let’s do this discussion in question/answer form. We should note that tomorrow will remain dry with a good deal of sunshine with a high in the upper 30s. Then comes Thursday….

WHEN?: Snow could enter West Alabama as early as 6:00 a.m. Thursday, but the bulk of the snow should come in the 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. time frame.

HOW MUCH? Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics. I still think at this phase of the game, it is best to forecast average amounts of one inch of snow north of a line from Gordo to Gardendale to Jacksonville. One to two inches are likely south of that line, including the Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston areas, on south to a line from York to Demopolis to Prattville to Lafayette. Then, south of that line, a wintry mix is likely for Montgomery, with mostly a cold rain for the southern quarter of the state. I stress Montgomery is on the fence here; it could be a cold rain there, or two inches of snow.

The 12Z runs were more aggressive with moisture, meaning we could very well see some 3 inch totals somewhere in Central Alabama with the deepest moisture and available critical thickness values. Just too early to pinpoint that for now. And, of course, all of this could change in coming hours, but this looks like a good forecast based on all of the available data.

TRAVEL PROBLEMS? Yes, icy spots will most likely develop on bridges, and roads that go across higher terrain. The good news is that this will be all snow, not freezing rain (a long period of freezing rain is what leads to big time icing problems). I have always said we have more traffic accidents here with one inch of rain as opposed to one inch of snow, but no doubt travel will be difficult at times as the snow accumulates.

Roads will probably begin to deteriorate as early as early afternoon over North Alabama where temperatures should be below freezing; for the I-20 corridor (Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston), driving problems should begin to develop by late afternoon (3:00 or later). Folks up north would not think twice about driving with just one to two inches of snow, but around here people simply aren’t used to it, so let’s be careful out there if you have driving plans.

WHAT ABOUT SCHOOLS? I figure there will be some school systems that use their snow days on Thursday and Friday, but officials won’t make that call until tomorrow night, or maybe even early Thursday morning. You will simply have to stay tuned for that.

POWER OUTAGES? Highly unlikely. We are talking about one to two inches of snow. No freezing rain or ice involved, and no power problems should occur.

WHAT ABOUT THE AIRPORT? I seriously doubt if this light snow event will cause major problems at Birmingham-Shuttlesworth Airport, but some delays are certainly likely.

HOW LONG WILL THE ROADS BE SLIPPERY? Driving should remain problematic through Friday morning. We will be in the deep freeze all weekend, so the snow will hang around, but very dry air near the surface will mean evaporation, and I figure roads will be in pretty good shape by Friday afternoon with only isolated icy spots on the secondary roads.

ARCTIC BLAST: I still say the biggest story is the cold air moving into the Deep South Friday through Sunday. I figure the high Friday and Saturday will be somewhere between 19 and 24. Friday will also feature a gusty north wind driving the wind chill index down to zero at times.

We continue to forecast an average low of 9 degrees Saturday morning, and 10 Sunday morning. If we have a decent snow cover, we will have to revise those numbers downward.

It is likely that we will remain below freezing from about 6:00 Thursday through 10:00 Monday… a total of 88 consecutive hours. Colder pockets will have a longer period of sub-freezing cold. You know the drill; wrap up the pipes, bring in the pets, and wives, bring in your husbands. Be sure and check on elderly people that might not have adequate heat and are not aware of this Arctic cold coming our way.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: We should rise into the 40s Monday. There is some risk of light rain toward the middle of next week, and we will have to watch for potential for some icing on the northern periphery of that precipitation over the Tennessee Valley. The next major storm system shows up around January 15, mostly in the form of rain. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

EXPECT SURPRISES: With any winter weather situation in Alabama, there will be surprises. And, there will always be people delighted with the amount of snow they see, and others severely disappointed. Keep an eye on the blog for forecast revisions in coming hours.

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The next discussion and Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… but we will have updates through the night!

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