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Hump Day Morning Briefing — Cloudy, Cool, With Showers Likely Today

| November 15, 2023 @ 4:07 am

At this insane time of 3:42 am, we have plenty of light to moderate rain across a good portion of Central Alabama, while the Tennessee Valley is mainly dry with only a few light scattered showers. We’ll keep those high rain chances through your Wednesday as skies will be cloudy. Much of the activity will be along and south of the I-20 corridor, but scattered showers will be possible north of that. It will be a cool day with highs only in the mid to upper 50s.

We’ll keep rain chances in the forecast for Thursday as rain will mostly be located over the southern half of the area, while a small chance of a few showers will be possible for the northern half. Rain chances will be a small bit higher for Central Alabama on Friday, but not an all day washout. Highs on both days will be in the mid to upper 60s for the most part, with a few lower 70s on Friday.

Much of the Central Alabama weekend will be dry with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s on both days. However, rain chances will move back into the area on Sunday evening, and showers becoming likely on Monday and continuing on Tuesday. While it’s a cold November rain that most don’t like, it is helping out with our drought situation. Highs in the upper 50s to the upper 60s on both days. The good news is that rain will be out of here in time for Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and that big rivalry game that everyone around here talks about 365 days a year.

Apparently, the tropics have realized that the end of hurricane season is close upon us, and is trying to step up it’s game before time runs out. Here is what we got…

Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a broad trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rains over portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater Antilles through the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.

Offshore the Southeast Coast of the United States: An area of low pressure is expected to develop near southern Florida in a day or so. This system is then forecast to move northeastward near the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late this week and over the weekend. Although development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.

Category: Alabama's Weather, ALL POSTS, Tropical

About the Author ()

Scott Martin is an operational meteorologist, professional graphic artist, musician, husband, and father. Not only is Scott a member of the National Weather Association, but he is also the Central Alabama Chapter of the NWA president. Scott is also the co-founder of Racecast Weather, which provides forecasts for many racing series across the USA. He also supplies forecasts for the BassMaster Elite Series events including the BassMaster Classic.

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