Messy Setup Late This Week

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SHORT TERM: Today will be another sunny, breezy, and cool day for Alabama with a high around 50. We drop into the 25 to 30 degree range tomorrow morning with a clear sky, and then warm into the mid 50s tomorrow afternoon. Clouds will begin to increase Thursday in advance of a very messy weather system to the west, that has the potential to bring a major ice/snow event to Oklahoma and Arkansas. Ice accumulations out there could be very significant by Thursday, with potential for enough ice for widespread power outages and serious travel problems.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Precipitation could begin to break out Thursday night over North Alabama; there could very well be some sleet involved as the air initially will be dry, but we don’t expect this to create any issues for Alabama. Then, rain should be widespread statewide on Friday. Just north of here, a winter storm will unfold over Tennessee, with potential for ice and snow accumulations, especially from I-40 north (Memphis to Nashville). Down here, we expect 1 to 2 inches of rain Friday with temperatures holding in the 40s much of the day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: This is when it gets tricky. The cold air will be very shallow, and model resolution isn’t really good enough to handle it, and the low level thermal values most likely will be too high. As the cold air drops south into Alabama, there will be a window for the rain to change over to a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and maybe even a few snow flakes. This will all be on the back side of the departing storm system, and that rarely produces major winter weather problems for Alabama. But, on the other hand, I am not sure the models are handling the thermal fields very well, and if the change happens earlier than guidance is suggesting, there is a window for some travel problems.

Bottom line for now is that we won’t change anything in the public forecast; we will forecast a soaking rain during the day Friday, with some risk of a light wintry mix Friday night as it winds down. We will fine tune this in coming days, so stay tuned. And, be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and model output. The main window for wintry precipitation will come from about 6:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight Friday night.

THE WEEKEND: The weather turns very cold Saturday. We won’t get out of the 30s, and wind chill index values will be below freezing much of the day, with some risk of lingering snow flurries Saturday morning. The coldest morning will come at daybreak Sunday with a low in the low 20s, with teens for the colder valleys. Then, with a sunny sky we will warm to near 50 degrees Sunday afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: Yet another wet weather system arrives in Alabama Tuesday, with more potential for winter weather mischief just north of here over Tennessee and Arkansas. Seems like the interesting combination of the two jet branches will continue into mid-February, with an active southern storm track, and the northern stream delivering shots of cold air.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We sure enjoyed having Les Lemon on the show last night; scroll down for the show notes.

STORM ALERT 2010: Our annual severe weather tour across Alabama is about to begin! Our first stop this year will be Thursday evening, January 28 in Winfield at First Baptist Church. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!

LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.

I am off to Piedmont this morning to speak to the kids at Piedmont Middle School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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