An Icy Wind This Afternoon; Snow Friday????

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GETTING COLD: Our forecast today mentioned temperatures falling from the 40s this morning into the 30s this afternoon, and that is right on target as an icy wind continues to blow. We still could hear reports of snow flurries this evening as the cold air moves in, but they won’t amount to much as the deeper moisture has moved out of Alabama. Most places will be in the mid 20s early tomorrow with the clouds hanging tough.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: As usual, the models try to clear us out too quickly. I fully expect clouds to still be in place tomorrow morning, but we will be optimistic and forecast some sunshine by afternoon as strong subsidence comes into play. It will be a cold day with temperatures struggling to reach 40. If the sun doesn’t come out; we stay in the 30s all day. Thursday will see clouds increasing again ahead of the next storm system in the southern branch of the jet stream.

FRIDAY SNOW? There are still more questions than answers about the possibility of snow for Alabama on Friday. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the detailed graphics that help explain the situation, but the bottom line is that the GFS remains an outlier to the south. In fact, if you took the 12Z GFS on face value there could be no snow or precipitation at all in Alabama; all of the precipitation stays in the Gulf. The GFS solution just doesn’t make much sense considering the history of the El Nino enhanced waves this cold weather season, and climatology for February. The NAM is also far to the south, but brings in snow for the southern quarter of Alabama and Mississippi.

The Canadian GEM is the most robust model for snow for North-Central Alabama, with a surface low farther to the north and moisture well inland. The ECMWF is a blend between the NAM and the GEM, and is probably the model of choice for now.

So, for now, it looks like the best chance of getting some snow accumulation Friday will be along the U.S. 80 corridor, or from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Auburn/Opelika, where an inch or two will be possible in spots. If the cold air is deeper than forecast, there might even be a strip of heavier snow between U.S. 80 and U.S. 84, around communities like Greenville and Troy. But, the depth of the cold air is in question that far south.

For the I-20 corridor (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston), we will just mention a chance of light snow for now, with only flurries north of I-20.

Needless to say, nothing is carved in stone, and our new system moving into California is now in the U.S. upper air network, so the 00Z runs should be much more accurate. We should have a good idea if this forecast is on track by late tonight or early tomorrow. Stay tuned.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be cold and dry. Sunday, a strong clipper system rolls through, with potential for some light snow or snow flurries, followed by much colder air Sunday night into Monday. We might have a hard time getting above freezing on Monday if the 12Z GFS is correct. We begin to moderate slowly on Tuesday.

VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS paints a whopper of a snow event for North Alabama on February 24, but we all know that is voodoo. But, the idea of more winter weather fun and games is a good one with the strongly negative AO and the active southern jet. The rest of February looks cold and unsettled for much of the continental U.S.

STORM ALERT 2010 IS COMING TO WALKER COUNTY THURSDAY: Our annual severe weather rolls along; our next stop will be on Thursday at Bevill State Community College in Sumiton. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!

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I had a great time today visiting with the 3rd graders at Rock Quarry Elementary School in Tuscaloosa this morning; be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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