February Is Making Us Shiver

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THIS MORNING: Bone chilling cold… most folks are down in the 18 to 22 degree range this morning, and we still have a few snow showers/flurries showing up over the northwest counties of the state. A flake or two is possible this morning, but the upward velocities have diminished, and the air is drier, so we don’t expect anything like those convective snow showers we dealt with last night that brought a dusting to 1/2 inch of snow to a number of communities.

We stay cold all day, and most likely will have a very hard time reaching 40 degrees today with a mix of sun and clouds. A brisk north wind will make it feel colder.

TRAVEL: The roads seem generally dry this morning; I had no trouble late last night coming home around midnight, and early reports indicate we won’t have too many problems. However, any standing water is ice, so let’s be careful out there driving in to work or school.

REST OF THE WEEK: Seems to be the warm-up I have in our ongoing forecast might be a little aggressive, but no doubt we will have a warming trend beginning tomorrow. I think low 40s tomorrow, upper 40s Thursday, and low 50s Friday is reasonable. No rain or snow… the rest of the week will be dry.

WHAT ABOUT THE WEEKEND: A very difficult forecast concerning when rain will fall. Model madness is beginning to creep in; watch the 06Z Weather Xtreme video and you will see it brings in only a slight risk of rain Friday night, followed by a much better rain event Sunday night. That run keeps us dry Saturday, and through most of the day Sunday. Let’s wait until the 12Z runs before we make any serious adjustment to the forecast. The latest GFS MOS products are printing highs in the low 60s both Saturday and Sunday, which most likely is too warm, but mid to upper 50s are certainly possible. So, at least the weekend will be comfortable even if it rains a bit at times.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The Arctic Oscillation remains strongly negative through the rest of February, so temperatures should remain generally below average. But, the days are stretching out and the sun angle is much better, so one way or another spring is getting closer. Don’t be shocked if we have one more winter weather issue (maybe two), but no way to resolve details in this challenging pattern beyond a few days. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for ideas from the 06Z GFS.

STORM ALERT 2010 COMES TO HALE COUNTY THIS WEEK: Our annual severe weather rolls along; our next stop will be Thursday at Hale County High School in Moundville. You can meet the ABC 33/40 Weather team, see some amazing Alabama weather stories, learn how to keep your family safe this tornado season, and win some cool stuff. The show begins at 7:00; be sure and get there early to get a good seat. See the entire tour schedule here!

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LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.

I am off to Piedmont this morning to speak at Piedmont Elementary School… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day and stay warm!

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