Calm Weekend; Potential Winter Storm Tuesday

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RIGHT NOW: Lots of sunshine this afternoon across the northern two-thirds of Alabama, with temperatures generally in the 50 to 55 degree range. The wave we have called “Bertha” will bring some clouds tonight and early tomorrow, but any precipitation should be confined to the far southern part of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

OUR WEEKEND: We will maintain a dry forecast tomorrow and Sunday, with highs in the low 50s tomorrow and mid 50s Sunday. Mornings will be chilly with lows at or below freezing. Bertha will merge with “Andrew” over the Northeast U.S. tomorrow as their big time winter storm slowly winds down (scroll down for some New York City snow images)>

HERE COMES CLARENCE: A very energetic system is moving into California, the system we have named “Clarence”. This will spin up a surface low in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday, and all global models are on the bandwagon. Of course, the devil is in the details, and we still won’t know them until late in the weekend. Here are my current thoughts:

*Confidence is high in accumulating snow for some part of the Deep South, with the best chance coming from about 9:00 Monday night through 12:00 noon Tuesday.

*Confidence is high for potential for a soaking rain along the Gulf Coast; 1 to 3 inches of rain is likely for places like Mobile, Pensacola, and Panama City.

*Confidence is very low in thermal fields and the rain-snow line. This one won’t be as cold as our system that brought 2 to 6 inches of snow to Alabama back on Friday February 12. However, climatology tells us early March Gulf cyclones like this can be very effective snow producers for Alabama, and the Canadian GEM has performed the best all season long. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the GEM output; it suggests a very nice snow for North-Central Alabama Monday night into Tuesday morning.

*Nobody knows what will happen now, and it remains too early for a specific forecast. We can play guessing games all day, but I don’t think we will be comfortable in making a rain/snow forecast until sometime Sunday, or maybe even Monday morning.

When I write this discussion Monday morning, and produce the Weather Xtreme video, we will be looking Clarence in the eyes, and will be able to give you a good rain-snow forecast. Stay tuned.

AFTER CLARENCE: Wednesday will be cold with a clearing sky, followed by dry weather and a moderating trend Thursday and Friday. A decent rain/storm event still shows up in the March 8/9 time frame; watch the video for details.

LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

I had a great time today visiting with the 5th and 6th graders at Glencoe Middle School; be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM this afternoon at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme videos tomorrow and Sunday; my next one, which promises to be very interesting, will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00 a.m. Enjoy the weekend!

Category: Uncategorized