Rain, Or Snow?

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

The storm we named “Clarence” a week ago is knocking on the door and we have better clarity this morning on how this whole thing plays out… Watch the Weather Xtreme video for a full look at the graphics that go along with this discussion and more detailed information.

THIS MORNING: WV satellite images show a very dynamic storm system sweeping through Texas, with a surface low beginning to form over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures early this morning are mostly in the 30 to 35 degree range; we expect a high today in the low to mid 50s with clouds slowly increasing.

TONIGHT: Rain should begin to break out late tonight, mostly after midnight, across our state as the cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico moves east-northeast and deepens. We might hear of some sleet mixed with the rain initially as evaporative cooling will take place during the initiation of the precipitation. Rain should be falling on most communities by 3:00 a.m.

TOMORROW: The surface low should make “landfall” somewhere around Apalachicola, which is a very preferred track for snow over North Alabama. However, most models agree the low levels will be a little warm for a big snow here. The critical thickness to watch is the low level one (1000 to 850 mb); that 1300 meter line remains over far North Alabama on most model runs, where moisture will be rather limited on the far northern periphery of “Clarence”. Cold air advection tomorrow will mean a pretty decent chance of the rain becoming mixed with, or changing to snow, but the chance of anything more than 1 inch looks pretty small. The snow will wind down tomorrow afternoon as the low pulls off to the northeast.

BOTTOM LINE: We will forecast a good chance of rain after midnight tonight, then changing to snow tomorrow morning, with potential for a dusting to 1/2 inch on grassy areas, but nothing to create any travel problems. The best chance of 1 to 2 inches of snow will be across the high terrain of Northeast Alabama, up on Lookout, and perhaps Sand Mountain, especially for elevations above 1,200 feet.

A WORD OF CAUTION: Despite pretty decent model clarity here, these things sure make me nervous. Many an early March Gulf low has produced a significant surprise here in Alabama, and this one sure has that potential. We will take a good look at the 12Z model runs later this morning, along with actual upper air and surface observations to see if we need to make any changes. I note Dr. Tim in his early morning discussion (below this post) mentions some risk of a 3 inch surprise snow through Central Alabama… while that is not likely, it certainly is not impossible with a system like this.

REST OF THE WEEK: The weather will be cold and dry Wednesday and Thursday; we won’t get out of the 40s Wednesday; the high Thursday should be close to 50. Then, a nice warming trend begins Friday with a high in the mid 50s.

WEEKEND PEEK: The weekend looks fantastic. Dry and mild, with highs well up into the 60s. The GFS is printing 65 Saturday, and 68 Sunday.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The next wave, the one we named “Dolly”, will bring a chance of heavy rain and strong storms in about 8 days, or on Tuesday of next week (March 9). Colder air returns following Dolly, and the latest AO outlook from the GFS suggests we might be pretty cold into the middle of March. See the Weather Xtreme video for more.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. This week’s show will not be posted until late Tuesday night. That will be the production night through the baseball season. This week we play America’s favorite new game show: Stump The WeatherBrains Panel. Author Paul Yeager will be the Guest WeatherBrain.

LIVE CHAT: We are now offering a real time chat here on the blog… open blog comments will stay in place, of course, but this will allow a more immediate method of communication for weather geeks. We do have moderators posted over there, so be sure and play nice. Members of our weather team will be there from time to time to answer questions; we will post those times we are available here on the blog.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 today… with notes during the day as needed. Enjoy your Monday!

Category: Uncategorized