Tropics Alert: Depression Eighteen Forms, Heading for Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the Gulf

As of 9 AM CST, Tropical Depression Eighteen has formed in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite imagery, and surface observations confirm that the system now has a well-defined center and organized deep convection, meeting the criteria for a tropical depression. The depression currently has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

Current Movement and Forecast Track
The depression is moving north-northeast at 9 mph but is expected to turn northwest later today. This northwest trajectory is forecast to continue over the next few days as a ridge develops over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. The projected path brings the system near Jamaica tonight, close to the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and over western Cuba on Wednesday. While confidence is higher in the track leading up to its entrance into the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast becomes less certain beyond that point due to varying model solutions.

Intensity Outlook
Environmental conditions, including low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea surface temperatures, support gradual strengthening. This trend is likely until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. By midweek, as it approaches the central Gulf, increasing wind shear, cooler waters, and drier air should hinder further development and induce weakening. The NHC’s current intensity forecast aligns with the middle range of guidance models.

New Watches and Warnings
The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas.

Summary of Watches and Warnings in Effect

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego
de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas

Key Impacts

Cayman Islands: Hurricane conditions expected on Tuesday, with hurricane warnings and watches in place.

Cuba: Possible hurricane conditions by early Wednesday, with watches and warnings issued.

Jamaica: Tropical storm conditions anticipated this evening.

Florida Keys: Tropical storm watches may be needed later today. Residents should stay updated.

Rainfall and Flooding Risks
Heavy rainfall is expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of Cuba through midweek, posing risks of flooding and mudslides. As the system progresses, heavy rainfall could affect Florida and parts of the Southeast U.S. later this week.

Residents in the affected areas should closely monitor official updates and prepare for potential impacts.

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