Tropics Update: Rafael Now a Tropical Storm; Forecast to Reach Hurricane Strength by Tomorrow

Scott Brown | November 4, 2024 @ 3:29 pm

Rafael has continued to strengthen throughout the day today, reaching tropical storm force as of the latest NHC update. The storm is not yet well defined on satellite imagery, however the data provided provided by the Hurricane Hunters suggests that Rafael is growing quite nicely.

CURRENT NHC STATS:
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.5N 76.7W
ABOUT 175 MI…280 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Cayman Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana,
Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego
de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

Rafael is currently south of Jamacia, and is headed on a northwest track. We expect the storm to pass over Cuba sometime Wednesday. Beyond that, models tend to disagree on the track of the storm. Right now, though, the overall consensus brings Rafael to around the Lower MS River Valley as a tropical storm.

Regardless of where the storm ends up landfalling in the US, wind shear is forecast to remain quite high across the Gulf Coast. This will work to weaken the system as it reaches the United States, possibly back down to tropical storm level.

As the 17th named storm of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, Rafael is fighting against the odds as it strengthens. Typically, tropical systems struggle to develop this late in the year due to decreases sea surface temperatures and higher wind shear values. However, this storm has managed to find a pocket where favorable environmental conditions still exist. Hurricane Hunter data suggests that the storm is currently developing its eyewall, which is the next step in its development.

It is expected that the Florida Keys will begin to feel tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon, but it is too soon yet to determine where else in the US will feel effects from Rafael. As soon as we have a better understanding of what this storm will do, we will provide an update. We can say though that we expect heavy rain to occur across much of the South as a result of this system.