Rain Returns This Week

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STILL DRY TODAY: Today could very well be the warmest day so far this year for many Alabama communities… we begin the day with temperatures in the 30s, but we should rise into the low 70s today with a decent amount of sunshine. Both the GFS and the NAM are printing 72 degrees for Birmingham today.

TOMORROW AND MID-WEEK: A few showers should break out across Alabama tomorrow as a southerly flow sets up. This won’t be a wash-out… the showers will be rather intermittent, and rain amounts should be relatively light. It looks like Wednesday could be the wettest day of the week, with occasional showers and maybe even a thunderstorm. We note SPC has a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday for areas west of Alabama, and we might see a strong storm Wednesday night with increasing dynamic lift, but for now severe weather looks rather unlikely for much of Alabama.

Rain amounts tomorrow through Wednesday night should be in the 1 to 2 inch range.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 06Z GFS brings in a dry slot Thursday, with the rain pushing east of Alabama by daybreak. If this solution is correct, most of Thursday and Friday will be dry with mild afternoons. If the sun breaks out Thursday, that should push us into the mid 70s, maybe even upper 70s over West Alabama. Then, expect a high closer to 70 on Friday with the sky occasionally cloudy. You really can’t rule out a shower somewhere on Thursday and Friday with an upper low to the north and occasional waves rotating around that feature, but it looks like it will be mostly dry on these two days.

WEEKEND PEEK: The upper low continues drifting northeast, away from Alabama, and for now we are looking at rather benign weather for the weekend, with a partly sunny sky Saturday and Sunday. The weather will be a little cooler, with highs around 60 degrees Saturday and Sunday.

LONG RANGE/VOODOO LAND: Still some decent hint of colder weather for Alabama in the March 16-22 time frame, but nothing severely cold, as the AO goes negative again. Just a reminder, the average date of the last freeze here is March 26, and we have see a freeze as late as April 23, so it is too early to be planting something that will be harmed by freezing temps. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

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Today I will be doing a severe weather safety program at the Hibbett Sports corporate HQ, and a weather program at Deer Valley Elementary School in Hoover. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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