Tropical Storm Sara Remains at a Steady Level of Intensity

As of the 3pm CT update from the NHC, Tropical Storm Sara maintains low end tropical storm status, with sustained winds of 40mph with higher gusts. She is moving west at 10mph, and will bring catastrophic flash flooding along with tropical storm force winds to the coast of Honduras. Here are the latest stats from the NHC on Sara:

LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

There have been some encouraging changes since yesterday concerning the intensity of what is now tropical storm Sara. Early model data suggested that Sara could reach major hurricane status in the southern Gulf. However, a southward shift in the track now takes Sara over a large area of land (Mexico), which will significantly degrade her structure and intensity.

Todays model data has taken this into account, and has come down in the forecasted intensity dramatically, with most models leaving nothing but a remnant area of low pressure by the time it exits back into the Gulf. While this is still a few days away, and things could change, this is a very encouraging trend for the eastern Gulf Coast states. The waters in the Gulf are cooler and there is more winds shear, so its unlikely that significant strengthening would occur by the time Sara reaches the Gulf.

Below is an ensemble view of the modeled intensity (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits) of Sara. As you can see, most models peak her intensity as a tropical storm.

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