Wet Is The Word

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FLASH FLOOD WATCH: An axis of heavy rain and storms set up right over the I-20 corridor overnight, and rain totals this morning are much heavier than guidance suggested yesterday. My rain bucket in North Shelby County is at 1.46″, and we have reports of over two and a half inches of rain in the Helena/Alabaster area, and the NWS continues a flash flood watch for Shelby County until 6:30.

REST OF TODAY: Diffluence aloft will continue over Alabama, providing good upward motion, and an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely, which could push some storm totals toward the 5 inch mark. Despite the ground is not saturated, rain like this will certainly produce some flooding issues. The other concern is a northward moving warm front; if that can push north of us, dewpoints will rise into the 60s, and we could be looking at some risk of strong to severe storms this afternoon and early tonight. No doubt the most significant risk will be west of Alabama, where SPC has a slight risk (their standard risk) in place for much of Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri. It would seem the best chance of severe storms in Alabama today will be over far west Alabama, near the U.S. 43 corridor, mainly in the general area from Tuscaloosa to Mobile. So, looks like a busy day in the weather office.

TOMORROW: Most model output shows the rain ending across Alabama tomorrow morning, with some sun breaking through during the midday hours and highs up in the mid 70s. With cold air aloft, the air will become rather unstable, and I still think we might see a few scattered showers or storms tomorrow afternoon; some of those could produce small hail considering the cold temperatures aloft. But, we note models do not show afternoon development.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A deep and large upper low will be just north of Alabama, and these cold core systems can be very problematic for weather forecasters. No doubt we will to mention a chance of scattered showers and storms on Friday with a mix of sun and clouds; the high Friday should be close to 70. Then, cooler air moves in on Saturday, with a generally cloudy sky, a chance of scattered showers, and a high in the mid to upper 50s. Saturday won’t be a wash-out at all, but just keep in mind a passing shower or two is a very real possibility. Then, on Sunday, we should reach the low 60s with intervals of sunshine. I am not sure the northern third of the state (north of U.S. 278) will see much sun over the weekend due to the moisture wrapping around the big upper low.

WEEKEND AT THE BEACH: This weekend kicks off spring break for a number of Alabama school systems. If you are headed to the beach this weekend, the weather looks dry (the general area from Panama City west to Gulf Shores), with a good supply of sunshine and a high in 60 to 63 degree range. We note the water temperature at Pensacola Beach late yesterday was a cool 57 degrees. If you get in the ocean, you might turn into a big block of ice.

NEXT WEEK: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for a day by day look at the weather; the 06Z GFS has shunted the next impulse well to the south, and the model keeps us generally dry next week with highs mostly in the 60s.

VOODOO LAND: That same GFS runs shows a cold air blast in here in the March 20-22 time frame that would get us well below the freezing mark. Again, it is way too early to put up the winter clothes!

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We will keep the blog updated with fresh information today… I will be speaking to the kids at Trinity United Methodist Church in Homewood this morning; the next Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day and STAY DRY.

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