Beware The Ides Of March

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A BENIGN PATTERN: Actually the Ides of March are kind to us this year; usually we are dealing with some pretty crazy weather this time of the year, anything from snow storms to tornadoes. Today, we simply have cloudy and cool weather across the state with no rain underneath those clouds. Birmingham is reporting only 51 degrees at 2:00 this afternoon, exactly 15 degrees below the average high of 66. Doesn’t exactly feel like spring break.

REST OF THE WEEK: Tomorrow will be a little brighter and warmer, but we will still have cloudy periods during the day. The high should be in the low 60s. Then, on Wednesday and Thursday, with some upward atmospheric motion, we will mention a few isolated showers both days, but the moisture is very limited, and most places won’t see any rain. We figure highs will be in the 61 to 65 degree range on these days with the sky occasionally cloudy. I still say Friday will be the nicest day of the week, with a sunny sky and a high around 70 degrees. That will finally make it feel like spring.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: A cold front will bring showers to the state over the weekend, but for now it looks like the daytime hours on Saturday will be dry, with a high in the upper 60s. The best chance of rain along the front should come from about 12:00 midnight Saturday night through 8:00 a.m. Sunday. Moisture and instability parameters suggest no severe weather or heavy rain issues; most places will see 1/2 inch of rain or less. Colder air invades the state Sunday; looks like we won’t make it out of the 50s with a cool north breeze and lingering clouds.

The 12Z GFS introduces the idea of a wave of low pressure forming on the front in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico Sunday night, which throws some rain back into Southeast Alabama, perhaps reaching Montgomery. For now we will leave our forecast dry Sunday night and Monday, and make adjustments during the week as needed.

NEXT WEEK: Monday promises to be rather chilly; looks like we start the day in the 30s. If the sky happens to be clear, we might be dealing with a late season freeze, but the latest GFS run keeps clouds in place, which should limit lows to the mid to upper 30s. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry with a warming trend.

LONG RANGE: See the Weather Xtreme video for specifics… but it looks like a couple of decent rain producing systems are ahead during the last week of March, with potential for a couple of shots of cold air.

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