Searching For Sunshine

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CLOUDS WON’T GO AWAY: Sure looks like another day with an overcast sky for Alabama; guess we should be used to it by now. A disturbance moving along the Gulf Coast will keep us cloudy today, and cool as well. Like recent days, we won’t get out of the 50s today, and some places north of Birmingham will have a hard time getting out of the 40s.

Rain is falling this morning along the coast, and we will have to mention the chance of a little scattered light rain up this way late today and tonight, but rain amounts, if any, should be pretty spotty.

I do think we have a chance at seeing a little sunshine tomorrow, and also there is a chance that we finally get back into the low to mid 60s by afternoon. We will mention an outside risk of a shower tomorrow with yet another impulse moving through, but many communities will stay dry.

FINALLY ON FRIDAY: This is the day we advertise as the nicest day this week. Sunshine returns in full force with a high around 70 degrees… the weather will finally look and feel like spring. The GFS and the NAM both print a high of 71 degrees in Birmingham on Friday; sure sounds good.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Saturday will stay dry and mild with a mix of sun and clouds and high in the low 70s, but a cold front will bring changes on Sunday.

Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 00Z GFS is more aggressive with the upper trough, and accordingly the surface features. Dynamics on this run would support a chance of strong to severe storms early Sunday morning, however thermodynamics are simply not here for severe weather with no surface based instability. So, for now the chance of major severe weather problems continues to look low, but if instability values happen to be higher than forecast, we might be burning the midnight oil.

The main window for showers and thunderstorms will come Sunday morning, from 1:00 a.m. until 1:00 p.m. Rain amounts around 1 inch are likely. And, in the wake of the storms, Sunday should be sharply colder with temperatures holding around 50 degrees all day with lingering clouds and a chilly north breeze. Sunday certainly won’t be a “Chamber of Commerce” day around here.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS has totally backed off on the idea of a surface wave in the Northeast Gulf Monday, so it looks like the sky will clear Sunday night, and that should allow temperatures to fall into the mid 30s Monday morning. While a widespread freeze doesn’t seem likely, some of the colder pockets across North and Central Alabama could dip below 32 for a brief time. Monday and Tuesday will be dry with a good supply of sunshine and a warming trend. Rain returns, however, before the week is over; the latest GFS run targets Thursday (March 25) as the main rain day next week.

THE LAND OF VOODOO: Changeable is the word; no way to be specific in this active pattern, but occasional rain producing systems and shots of colder air are likely into the first part of April.

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