Active Weather Day Tomorrow

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THIS AFTERNOON: The sub-tropical jet stream is pushing a veil of high clouds over the southern two-thirds of Alabama this afternoon, but the day remains very pleasant with filtered sunshine and temperatures in the 70 to 74 degree range for most spots. The clouds will thicken tonight, ahead of the next short wave approaching from the south.

STORMY THURSDAY: SPC has expanded the standard “slight risk” of severe weather to include much of Alabama tomorrow. Overall instability values still remain rather limited; the highest SBCAPE on the 12Z NAM for Birmingham is 396 j/kg, which is fairly marginal for severe weather events in late March. However, other parameters are much more impressive. The STP (significant tornado parameter) ramps to 1.84 late tomorrow afternoon due to the favorable low level helicity values that will be in place over Alabama. So, we will be watching for severe storms closely tomorrow.

The main window for showers and storms seems to be from about 1:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight. Some of the storms during this time could be strong to severe with the possibility of some hail, and maybe even a few isolated tornadoes. Rain amounts of 1/2 inch are likely, with isolated amounts to one inch.

FRIDAY: Interesting to note the huge difference between the GFS, with a high of 64 for Birmingham, and the NAM, which is much cooler printing a high of 51. We will split the difference for now, and forecast a high in the upper 50s. The sky will be cloudy during the morning, and there is a fair chance the sky becomes partly sunny by afternoon. If the clouds hang around all day, then the NAM could be correct. One way or another it will be cooler, but mostly dry.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday looks fine with a good supply of sunshine and a high around 70 degrees. Then, the next storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the state on Sunday. This one could very well bring some risk of strong thunderstorms to the state; let’s get tomorrow’s system out of here and we can be much more specific about Sunday. While it won’t rain all day Sunday, we could have showers or storms at just about any time.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will feature a clearing sky with a high around 60… then the weather will be dry and mild for the mid-week period. The 12Z GFS is not as warm as last night’s 00Z run, which had us up around 80 on Wednesday. Some hint at rain returning toward the end of the week.

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I had a great time today visiting with the 2nd graders at Deer Valley Elementary School in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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