Great Day – Rain Tomorrow

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We have another great spring day in store for us in Central Alabama as temperatures warm up nicely approaching the 70-degree mark for highs. The day did start a little cool with many places dipping into the upper 30s. But we’ll definitely feel the warmth of the sun with clear skies.

Clouds should begin the invasion process tonight with rain a good possibility by morning across the northern third of Alabama. A strong trough in the upper levels will approach tonight and Sunday. Normally the forecast would be fairly easy with rain and storms, but the atmosphere is currently quite dry, so there is some uncertainty as to how much and how fast the atmosphere can recover. The latest GFS model run suggests that Alabama might be out of the woods for strong to severe storms as the greatest instability occurs primarily in Central Georgia. I have to be just a little cautious and go along with the current slight risk area defined by SPC which actually takes in eastern Alabama. If the instability and moisture return can occur faster than the GFS is forecasting, then the severe weather threat would include eastern Alabama. Stay tuned to the Blog for the latest information as the folks here monitor developments.

Rainfall amounts do not appear to be significant. It seems likely that places in Central Alabama could see a quarter to a half inch of rain with potential for slightly higher amounts across the Tennessee River Valley area.

The upper trough goes by Monday, however additional clouds and perhaps some patchy light rain or a light shower will be possible Monday as a minor short wave or two comes down the western side of the strong trough. I think we are likely to see some sun by afternoon.

After Monday, it looks dry and warm for the rest of the week as an upper ridge builds into and across the area. The GFS is banking on this ridge to become quite strong with a strong center over the Mid-Atlantic area. This strong ridge will keep the next big trough at bay to our west. With this slow movement, there is a small chance of rain along the Mississippi-Alabama border on Saturday. Looks like temperatures will be back into the 70s by Wednesday and stay there through the end of the week.

Voodoo country continues to show a relatively active pattern. The pattern appears to become somewhat flattened late in the second week, but that is so far out I wouldn’t put a lot of trust in it just yet – let’s see if that trend continues.

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This should be a wonderful Saturday to enjoy – and warm enough to do a little early Spring yard work perhaps. Whatever you have planned for the day, enjoy it. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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