Chilly Morning; Mild Afternoon

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TODAY: The colder pockets are flirting with the freezing mark this morning; we note that Haleyville and Fayette have dropped to 34 degrees, and some frost is certainly possible in these spots. But, the dry air will warm up quickly across our state today, with most places enjoying a high between 68 and 71 degrees this afternoon.

THE BIG THAW: We will stay dry through Friday, with the warmest temperatures so far this year by the end of the week. We rise into the upper 70s tomorrow, followed by low 80s Thursday and Friday. The last time we were in the 80s was back on October 29 of last year, when the high was 81 degrees. There will be a hint of summer in the air. And, each day will feature a good supply of sunshine.

EASTER WEEKEND: No doubt we will deal with a round of showers and storms over the weekend, but how much rain, and the timing, remains somewhat up in the air with great model madness. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the GFS now suggests we will have a chance of showers and storms from about 2:00 p.m. Saturday through midnight Saturday night; the Canadian and the Euro maintain the best chance of showers and storms after midnight Saturday night into Sunday morning.

I think the best approach for now is to mention a chance of showers and storms mainly Saturday night; we will adjust the timing as we get closer to the event.

The 00Z GFS is a little more aggressive with the strength of the system, and is a little farther south, opening the door for some strong storms; other runs have been weaker with a more northward placement. I guess we can’t rule out some strong storms with this, but for now it doesn’t look like a great threat. The rain shouldn’t last that long, and rain amounts should be 1/2 inch or less.

One way or another, a decent part of Easter Sunday looks dry, especially the afternoon hours. No cold air involved with this system; the high Sunday will be in the 70s.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Some hint of another round of showers and storms by the middle part of next week, followed by colder air later in the week. Again, there is very little model inconsistency, so confidence is not high in any long range ideas at this point.

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I will be up in Etowah County today doing a weather program at Southside Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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