Some Rain Tomorrow, But Not Much

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RIGHT NOW: For the second day in a row, the eastern part of Alabama gets the trophy for being the warm spot. Anniston leads the way with 84 degrees at 2:00; Birmingham is at 81. High cirrus clouds are advancing into the western half of the state ahead of the storm system to the west, where strong storms could form in the next few hours around the Ark-La-Tex region.

TOMORROW: Not much change in the overall thinking. A band of showers and storms should enter West Alabama sometime tomorrow morning, then progressing eastward during the midday hours. As the upper support lifts well to the north of Alabama, we expect a weakening trend as the band of showers moves to the east. Odds of organized severe weather continue to look very low, and rain should be light. The NAM is printing only 0.22″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is similar with 0.29″. See the Weather Xtreme video for ideas on timing.

EASTER SUNDAY: We will continue to forecast warm and dry weather Sunday with a high in the low 80s. We do note the NAM shows the old front moving northward as a warm front, and suggests an afternoon shower is possible; for now we won’t mention that since the model is an outlier for now.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday look dry and very warm with a high in the mid 80s; a cold front will bring a band of showers and storms late Wednesday or Wednesday night, followed by cooler air Thursday and Friday. The 12Z GFS continues the idea that Polar air will not be tapped, and we won’t have to worry about freezing temperatures at the end of the week. But, some of the colder spots could see some light frost by Friday morning.

LONG RANGE: We see occasional opportunities for showers through mid-month, but nothing shows up on the operational GFS that hints at major severe weather problems.

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My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Have a blessed Easter weekend!

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