A Chilly Breeze

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THIS AFTERNOON: Temperatures are nowhere near forecast highs; in fact some spots over North Alabama have not made it out of the 50s with a very chilly northwest breeze and low clouds that continue to thicken.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: A strong vorticity maximum will move down the backside of the trough over the eastern U.S., bringing clouds to North Alabama, and even some risk of a few showers. The NAM is more aggressive with the coverage of the showers tomorrow, but one way or another it won’t be a big rain event. Where the showers do form, rain amounts will be generally under one-tenth of an inch. Tomorrow will be cool as well with a high in the mid 60s.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These days will be the best of the week… lots of sunshine both days with a high close to 70 on Wednesday, and near 80 on Thursday as a warming trend begins.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A very challenging forecast. The 12Z GFS wants to keep the worst weather just north and west of here, so confidence is low. It will be a battle between a warm ridge over Florida and a big upper trough over the western half of the nation. Somewhere in that battle zone a stalled front will set up, with periods of rain along with strong to severe thunderstorms. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the latest guidance keeps the worst of the weather over places like Jackson and Memphis, with some hint that the southern two-thirds of Alabama could be generally dry this weekend, with the bulk of the the rain over the northwest counties.

For now we will mention a chance of showers and storms Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, and fine tune the forecast as we get closer. If the rain does stay northwest of here, it will be very warm with potential for mid to upper 80s. But, if we are in the zone of rain and storms, we won’t get out of the 70s.

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