TD#4 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Dean

The depression in the eastern Atlantic has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dean…

It will may be a strong Category Two/borderline Category Three hurricane as it brushes the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty about the track. If the ridge to the north is stronger, the storm may take a more westward track through the Caribbean.

Scroll down for the official NHC track forecast and the output from the various track models.

WTNT34 KNHC 141433
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

…DEAN FORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS…MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES…

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 1100 AM AST…1500Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH…LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1030
MILES…1660 KM…WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 1490 MILES…2400 KM…EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH…37 KM/HR…AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION…11.7 N…39.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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