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Convection A No-Show So Far

| June 16, 2010 @ 3:29 pm | Reply

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SUMMERTIME BLUES: I wrote an op-ed piece here earlier this week about our lack of skill in forecasting the placement and coverage of thunderstorms on summer afternoons in Alabama; you can read it here. Very appropriate considering the big difference between yesterday’s stormy day and today’s lack of rain.

Seems like there was enough morning cloud cover to keep temperatures in the 80s this afternoon, which in turn has limited instability values and the general buoyancy of the airmass over Alabama. I somehow doubt that much happens during the next few hours, although a few showers or storms could fire up. We do note some active storms way down over far South Alabama.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The models are projecting hotter afternoons, with highs in the 92 to 95 degree range, with the usual risk of a shower or storm each afternoon in a few spots. The global models hint that the storms will be widely scattered, but we simply don’t have much skill in trying to be cute and handle small scale features that impact afternoon convection more than a day in advance. We will broad brush the forecast with the standard summer “partly sunny, hot, and humid with widely scattered afternoon showers and storms” wording through the weekend.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Quite frankly, nothing really shows up for us to deviate from the routine summer forecast for the rest of June. Sure, there will be days with more convection than others, but it is impossible to identify those days far in advance.

TROPICS: The tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles in the Atlantic remains disorganized, and the rest of the Atlantic basin remains rather quiet.

THE GULF OF MEXICO: The water is gradually heating up. Sea water temperatures at midday today included 84 over the Middle Gulf, 86 over the East Gulf, 87 in Pensacola Bay and 90 about 75 miles south of Dauphin Island. Tropical storms are happy to have water temperatures that warm.

AT THE BEACH: A good chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, but the rest of the week and through the weekend there will be a 1 in 3 chance of a shower or thunderstorm each day. Daily highs will be in the lower 90s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.

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I had a great time today visiting Alabama Power’s Gaston Steam Plant today at their safety meeting; I for one am very glad for the work they do, and the electricity they provide! Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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