Showers/Storms Still Possible Today

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STILL MOIST: We see a pockets of light rain early this morning in the moist air over Alabama… mainly over the eastern half of the state. Still looks like the surface front/dry line is just north of the Tennessee border this morning. The dewpoint in Nashville is 64, but down I-65 Cullman’s dewpoint in North Alabama is 74. So, we remain in most air which should mean another day with a chance of scattered showers and storms, maybe numerous at times this afternoon and early tonight.

The big forecast dilemma is figuring out how far south that dry will go. As you all know, fronts rarely make it as far south as I-20 this time of the year, but we will certainly trend drier tomorrow and Friday. Just a slight risk of a shower for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston, with no rain north of U.S. 278 (north of Cullman). Highs will be mostly in the 87 to 90 degree range, not bad at all for early July in Alabama.

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND: The deepest moisture will remain over the southern half of the state, where a few showers and storms are likely. Up this way, we might see a shower or two, but a pretty good part of the weekend should be dry. The GFS suggests highs will be generally in the upper 80s.

AT THE BEACH: Alex will not have a direct impact on the coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores, but the large circulation around the system will bring deep tropical moisture to the region, and that, in combination with an expected stalled surface front over Central Alabama, will mean scattered to numerous showers and storms on a daily basis through Sunday. The rain won’t continuous, and the sun will be out at times, but you will have to occasionally dodge raindrops. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperatures are hovering in the mid to upper 80s along the coast.

ALEX: The hurricane is packing sustained winds of 80 mph, and it should inland late tonight on the Mexican coast, about 150 miles south of Brownsville, Texas (NHC has adjusted the track a little to the south). We note that Alex is the first June hurricane in the Atlantic basin since 1995. The system will dissipate over the mountains of northern Mexico by the end of the week.

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