Eyes On The Gulf

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THIS AFTERNOON: Another day of heat and humidity across our state. Observations at 3:00 include 94 at Anniston, 97 in Birmingham and Gadsden, and 99 in Tuscaloosa. Today is the 37th consecutive day with a high of 90 or hotter for most spots around here; the last time we had a high under 90 was back on the Fourth of July. It has been a long, hot summer. Not much change tomorrow; the high will be in the 95 to 99 degree range with only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. But, confidence is increasing that rain chances will increase, along with a decrease in heat levels, late in the week and over the weekend with tropical moisture surging northward.

GULF OF MEXICO DEVELOPMENTS: A 1010 mb surface low is about 200 miles west of Fort Myers, Florida in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, and conditions seem favorable for this to develop into a tropical depression in coming days as the system moves to the west/northwest. The models are doing the usual hokey-pokey, and the 12Z set has shifted a little to the left, with potential landfall over the eastern coast of Louisiana Thursday evening, followed by a curve north, then northeast through Mississippi and Tennessee. This could keep Alabama on the wet east side of the system, giving us hope of tropical rains at times Friday and over the weekend. The amount and coverage of the rain will depend on the structure of the tropical system, which we will be watching with great interest in coming days.

In terms of intensity, most dynamic models bring this up to tropical storm strength by the time of landfall; the main impact will be the potential for heavy rain along and east of the landfall center. There is some outside risk hurricane strength could be achieved… tropical systems are much like thunderstorms. You have to expect the unexpected.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: It will greatly depend on the tropical situation, but it looks like we can expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with highs mostly in the low to mid 90s. The unsettled weather should last into early next week as a surface front slips into Tennessee and stalls out near the Alabama border. I really get the idea the worst of the summer heat is now behind us. Don’t misunderstand; the weather will be hot and muggy through the rest of August, but I get the idea the four days with a high of 101 from August 1 through August 4 will be the peak of the summer heat of 2010.

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I had a wonderful time speaking at the Alabama Power Corporate HQ in downtown Birmingham this morning… tomorrow I will be over in Starkville speaking to the summer broadcast meteorology program workshop at Mississippi State University. I will crank out a Weather Xtreme video before I leave; it will be posted by 7:00 a.m. or so…

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