Tropical Moisture Headed This Way

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TD5 STRUGGLING: The tropical depression in the Gulf is struggling to stay alive, but there is a clear stacked low (aloft down to the surface) about 100 miles south of Panama City. Whether is a tropical wave, depression, or minimal tropical storm really won’t impact the effect on our weather anyway. Remember, we want the rain… not a strong tropical storm or a hurricane. This is still an excellent opportunity to get some needed rain for our state in coming days.

TOMORROW: Not much change. Partly to mostly sunny with isolated storms and a high in the 95 to 99 degree range.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: TD5 will move inland late tomorrow, with the broad circulation moving up into South Mississippi. Alabama will be on the moist, east side, meaning significantly higher PW values (precipitable water) statewide, and accordingly we expect an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms by Friday. The broad low will drift into Alabama, and become nearly stationary. This means the sky will be occasionally cloudy Saturday and Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Don’t look for a large rain mass to cover our state the whole weekend; the rain will and go, and the rain distribution will be rather uneven on a day to day basis. But, I do think that most Alabama communities have a good chance of seeing 1 to 2 inches of rain Friday through Sunday night. Highs will drop back into the low to mid 90s, and there is still some chance a few spots could hold below 90 for the first time since July 4.

NEXT WEEK: A deep layer of tropical moisture will continue to cover Alabama during the first half of next week, with a pretty good chance of showers and storms on a daily basis Monday through Wednesday. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s.

VOODOO LAND: The heat ridge generally shifts to the west, and it sure looks like the worst of the summer heat is behind us. No doubt the weather will stay hot and humid through the rest of August, but just as hot as the weather we have endured over the past few weeks. And, the door is open for more tropical mischief with a general weakness in the ridge showing up around here in the 500 mb means.

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I enjoyed being at Mississippi State University this morning as always; got a chance to meet a number of television weather folks from around the nation in for the annual summer broadcast meteorology workshop. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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