A Refreshing Morning

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BELOW 70: Nice to see some 60s on the board this morning. Coolest at 5:00 was Haleyville with 64 degrees; Birmingham is reporting 70, but more than likely the official temperature will drop below 70 here for the first time since July 5. The cooler morning is the result of the unusually dry air in place over Alabama; continental air like this heats and cools more effectively.

REST OF THE WEEK: Dry is the word. In fact, a fresh supply of dry air arrives Thursday, so we expect sunny hot afternoons and clear pleasant nights through Friday with low humidity. It makes me a little uncomfortable totally leaving the risk of an afternoon shower or storm out of the forecast in late August, but it will be very hard to stir up a shower with such a dry airmass. Birmingham’s long string of consecutive 90+ degree days will continue to expand; today should be day 51.

WEEKEND PEEK: The 00Z GFS hints at a little moisture creeping in here from the east, but the air remains pretty dry, and for now we won’t mention any significant risk of showers in the forecast. Partly to mostly sunny Saturday and Sunday with highs at or just above 90.

VOODOO LAND: The medium range (7 to 15 days) sure looks dry. No doubt there might be a day or two with a few showers or storms around, but there is no synoptic scale reason to think we get any widespread rain here through September 8, unless we get a little visit from a tropical system.

DANIELLE: The hurricane in the Atlantic, about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, is packing sustained winds (estimated, of course) at 100 mph. Not much change in the overall thinking; this one will turn north, and then northeast into the open Atlantic well before reaching the East Coast of the U.S. The GFS continues to show a track with recurvature even east of Bermuda.

EARL? The strong wave behind Danielle in the far eastern Atlantic should be upgraded to a depression anytime (it sure looks like one now), and most likely will be Tropical Storm Earl sooner than later. This one has a lower latitude than Danielle, but models still suggest this one will head northwest, and the GFS shows recurvature east of the U.S. next week in a path very similar to Danielle. Way too early to actually know at this point, so we will keep an eye on things.

GULF OF MEXICO: Unsettled weather continues in the Gulf along the boundary between the dry air in place across the Deep South and moist air to the south, but upper air winds don’t favor development at this point.

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I am doing a severe weather safety program this morning down in Alexander City… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!

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