Rainy Day Ahead

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Looks like Central Alabama is headed for a cloudy and rainy Sunday thanks to a small disturbance located over Southeast Louisiana this morning. But for today, look for a combination of clouds and sun with highs still around 90 degrees. Moisture will be increasing from the south so we should all be seeing some peeks at the sun. And like yesterday, scattered showers should develop in the afternoon heat, so once again some spots will get some rain this afternoon and this evening.

Sunday that weak disturbance is forecast to move northward and should produce a cloudy and rainy day across Central Alabama. Most spots will not see it rain all day, but showers and some thunderstorms should provide a fairly significant coverage to the rain. I think the QPF chart from HPC has underdone our rain amounts with the potential for many areas to get 1 to 2 inches of rain. The clouds and rain should also hold temperatures done nicely with highs only reaching the mid 80s.

The big question for Monday and Tuesday will be the impact of the upper air weakness. The GFS suggests that it hangs around – and that seems the right idea – but at the same time the GFS drops back on rain chances and coverage. I think with the weakness hanging around, we’ll see reasonably good chances for rain and showers. The best chances come Sunday, but I think Monday and Tuesday will see at least scattered showers and thunderstorms.

The weakness finally dissipates at mid-week returning us to warm afternoon temperatures as well as highs 89 to 92.

The tropics have become quite active. The NHC is watching the disturbance over Southeast Louisiana but there is little chance for any development there as it moves over land. In the Atlantic, we have Danielle, Earl, and the not-too-far-from-becoming Fiona. The Atlantic Basin looks pretty typical for late August or early September with the storms lined up in a tropical train. Danielle is forecast to move off to the north and northeast just missing Bermuda. Earl will be following closely behind but is also forecast to remain at sea. The GFS is suggesting Earl will get dangerously close to the Carolina coast around September 3rd before getting picked up in the westerlies. This could very well create some dangerous surf for the Carolina coasts. Last in line is a disturbed area which is likely to become Fiona. It should also train along behind the other two but might not be as potent with the surface conditions so thoroughly churned up.

Further afield, the GFS suggests the return of the “energizer” ridge around the 8th of September, so the heat is likely to continue. And at the end of the cycle, I see a strong trough coming through the flow which might spell the appearance of our first really good front! But that is a long way out just yet, so I know I’ll be watching with great hopefulness for that first good air mass change!

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Thanks for staying tuned. I expect to have the next one posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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