Late Evening Check on the Tropics

| September 12, 2010 @ 10:14 pm | 1 Reply

IGOR IS ONE POWERFUL HURRICANE: Igor is very close to tying Earl for the honor of being the strongest Atlantic hurricane of the 2010 season. In fact, there are several similarities between the two storms. One in the intensity. Igor boasts top winds of 140 mph and could get even stronger today. . Earl peaked at 145 mph.

Another is the forecast track. Igor is about 1030 miles east of the island of St. Martin tonight, still heading to the west. Igor should begin turning to the west northwest on Monday and will pass about 500 miles northeast of San Juan on Thursday. By next Saturday, Igor will be well east of Savannah and turning northward along longitude 68 west. If this materializes, it will pass well east of Cape Cod on Monday, having no direct impact on the U.S. except for some high surf.

JULIA HAS FORMED: Tropical Storm Julia was named just a few minutes ago southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. It will be passing near the islands on Monday, strengthening as it goes and it should become a hurricane on Tuesday. Julia will likely turn to the northwest fairly quickly toward a weakness in the high pressure ridge across the Atlantic. But there is a chance that it could turn back to the west southwest next weekend. It still should be well north of the islands and it should not amount to much more than a minimal hurricane in the next seven days, but after that, all bets are off.

INVEST 92L: The disturbance over the Caribbean is still having a hard time getting its act together. It is producing a lot of convection, but no longer has a strong circulation. The GFS still does not recognize it amounting to anything. We will keep our fingers crossed that the model is right.

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Bill Murray is the President of The Weather Factory. He is the site's official weather historian and a weekend forecaster. He also anchors the site's severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association Digital Seal #0001 @wxhistorian

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