Big Changes Begin This Weekend

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TODAY AND TOMORROW: Understand the weather won’t change much on these two days… highs will be up in the low 90s, and we will see only isolated afternoon showers and storms. Basically the same as yesterday, with the chance of any one spot getting wet only in the 10 to 20 percent range. The weather will still look and feel like summer, instead of early fall (which arrived last night at 10:09 p.m. CDT)

THE WEEKEND: We expect an increase in the number of showers and storms on Saturday as an upper low begins to form northwest of Alabama, but they will still be scattered in nature. In fact, the 00Z GFS has come in a little drier for Saturday, so it looks like much of the day will be dry. The high will be close to 90, But, Sunday should bring a good chance of showers and storms with a high back in the mid 80s thanks to clouds and showers. It won’t rain all day Sunday, but it could rain at any time.

NEXT WEEK: Wet is the word for the first half of the week with periods of rain and a few thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. The GFS is printing a high of only 79 Monday, which will sure feel good after this September heat wave. The upper low will drift only slowly eastward, keeping the weather unsettled. Then, Thursday and Friday of next week, our weather will be determined by the placement of potential Tropical Storm Matthew….

TROPICS: Lisa in the far East Atlantic has weakened into a tropical depression… it will move very slowly to the northwest and is no threat to land for a while. The system to watch is the wave over the Caribbean, which is forecast to become Tropical Storm Matthew within 36 hours. This system will move to near the coast of Central America, and most dynamic models show a sharp turn to the right in response to the pattern change up here with the weakening ridge.

Models continue to agree that this system will impact the Florida peninsula by the middle of next week, perhaps in a big way if this becomes a hurricane. The 00Z GFS is farther west, and brings Matthew inland near Apalachicola, and has it near Tallahassee at the end of the week. Other runs have taken Matthew along the East Coast of Florida, with problems for the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Bottom line is that it is simply too early for a specific forecast… see the Weather Xtreme video for the details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games across Alabama both tonight and tomorrow night, there is just an outside risk of any one stadium getting wet due to the isolated nature of the afternoon showers and storms we expect. Temperatures will fall from the upper 80s at kickoff to near 80 by the final whistle.

Saturday, Alabama will travel to Arkansas to play the Razorbacks in Fayetteville (2:30 p.m. CDT kickoff). At this point the weather looks great with a good supply of sunshine, and temperatures falling from near 78 at kickoff, to the low 70s by the fourth quarter. Auburn will be at home hosting the South Carolina Gamecocks (6:45 p.m. CDT kickoff); a passing shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game, with temperatures falling from 85 at kickoff into the upper 70s by the end of the game. UAB will be in Knoxville to play the Tennessee Volunteers Saturday morning (11:20 a.m. CDT kickoff); a shower or storm is possible during the game with temperatures generally in the 79 to 82 degree range.

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I am headed down to Demopolis this morning to speak to a group of senior adults… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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