A Few Showers Tonight; Cooler Tomorrow

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WARM AFTERNOON: Our weather should stay dry today, with a high up in the low 80s in most spots this afternoon. That is about 10 degrees above average, and within 5 to 8 degrees of the record high of 88 set in 1938. The sky will be partly sunny, but those clouds will increase tonight ahead of a surface cold front that has the potential to squeeze out a few showers tonight. Unfortunately, rain amounts will be very light and spotty, and many communities will miss the showers completely. The main window for showers will come from about 9:00 tonight through 6:00 tomorrow morning.

COOLER TOMORROW: The sky becomes sunny tomorrow with highs dropping back into the mid 70s with a fresh north breeze. We will be down in the 40s by Thursday morning, and the dry weather continues through Friday with pleasant days and cool nights.

OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be dry… we are forecasting a partly sunny with a high around 80 degrees. Beyond Saturday, some model madness is creeping in. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 00Z GFS shows a nice increase in moisture Sunday with some risk of showers by afternoon, followed by a good chance of showers and possible thunderstorms by Monday. Other runs of the GFS has been dry, but the ECMWF also is beginning to look wet Monday, so we will begin to lean our forecast in the direction of a better chance of rain early next week.

LONG RANGE: Out in voodoo land, the pattern looks much more active, with a series of sharp upper troughs impacting the Deep South late this month into early November, which is expected as we begin our fall severe weather season. Decent rain/storm events show up October 29 and November 3, with potential for heavy rain and strong storms with both events. Of course, this will probably change, but I do think the idea of a more active pattern is correct.

TROPICS: The disturbance near the coast of Central America has a chance of becoming Tropical Storm Richard in coming days. There are very little steering currents near the system, so it is expected to hang around for the next five days with little movement. The rest of the Atlantic basin remains relatively quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will post the show notes on this week’s new episode shortly. We had a great time with Dr. Steve Lyons last night.

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I have a weather program today at South Shades Crest Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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