Mild Afternoons, Chilly Nights

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STORM ALERT XTREME: Our annual storm spotter training is coming up this Saturday at the BJCC, as part of the Alabama International Auto show. We begin at 9:00, and you will be done at 2:00. And, as a “thank you”, you will get free admission into the car show. There is no cost, and no need to register, just show up. Brian Peters will be the trainer, and we ask all existing and potential Skywatchers to attend. See you there… just look for the signs for directions.

VIDEO NOTE: Seems like YouTube had some hiccups yesterday… the afternoon video did not post to our player here on the blog, which keys on the RSS feed they provide. Hopefully that won’t happen today… but you can see all of our videos anytime directly on YouTube here. Remember we also produce higher quality Quicktime version of the video that is available via iTunes, for use on your computer or portable devices like iPods, iPads, and iPhones.

DRY THROUGH FRIDAY: A very dry airmass continues to cover Alabama, and our weather won’t change much through Friday with sunny mild days and clear cool nights. We note that most places are in the 30s this morning, well below statistical guidance from computer model output. The Birmingham Airport continues to run several degrees warmer than all other local observations… for example they report 43 degrees at 5:00, while Concord is at 37 (west of downtown). Long time readers know that a big range is to be expected on a clear, calm morning, but usually the Airport observation is one of the colder ones due to it’s valley location. We will keep an eye on that in coming weeks to see if there might be a data quality issue there.

OUR WEEKEND: No real change in our thinking… Saturday will be dry, but a few scattered showers are possible Saturday night and Sunday as a weakening surface boundary drifts into the state. Rain will be light and spotty, and highs over the weekend drop back into the 60s.

NEXT WEEK: The next decent rain event will unfold Monday and Tuesday, with potential for one inch of rain statewide with a more dynamic upper trough moving in from the west. The surface low will pass to the south, so severe weather is not expected, and probably not much thunder. Drier air moves in on Wednesday…

LONG RANGE: Very low confidence in events during the latter half of November. The NAO is forecast to be neutral, not strongly negative, so it is not certain at all if the shot of very cold air that will build over Canada will be allowed to drop into the Deep South. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

TROPICS: All is quiet across the vast Atlantic basin as the 2010 hurricane season winds down.

EIGHT YEARS AGO TODAY: A total of eleven tornadoes moved across Alabama, including two long track tornadoes that were rated EF-3. Eleven people were killed, and 65 more were injured. Some of the most serious damage was at Carbon Hill in Walker County, where the school building was destroyed. Total path length for the Carbon Hill Tornado was 44.3 miles, with a width of 1175 yards. Four deaths were reported with this tornado, three in the Rose Hill community area of Walker County and one near Arley in Winston County, with approximately 38 injuries associated with this tornado, 3 in Fayette County, 20 in Walker County, and 15 in Winston County. See the NWS survey of the event here.

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I will be out at Trussville Middle School this morning for a Veteran’s Day program, and then later today in Pelham at an AMSTI (Alabama Math Science Technology Initiative) open house. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: showers, weekend

Category: Alabama's Weather