Clouds, But Not Much Rain

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As forecast, moisture levels have been increasing across Alabama today, and also as expected there isn’t much action on the radar. A few isolated showers are possible tonight, mainly on the eastern side of the state, but most communities will remain dry.

TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: A deep moisture layer will be over Alabama tomorrow and Friday, but there isn’t any big trigger for rain. We will mention a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on both days, with highs in the low 80s. Where the clouds hang in all day, some spots won’t get out of the 70s. If you like the numbers game, the chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow and Friday is about one in three.

The increase in moisture is partly due to the broad low moving through the Gulf of Mexico, well south of the Alabama coast. This system has shown no increase in organization, and it looks like it will move harmlessly into the Louisiana coast tomorrow without becoming a tropical storm.

THE WEEKEND: At this point we are expecting a mostly dry and warm weekend for Alabama. A few isolated showers are possible Saturday and Sunday, but showers will be few and far between. The weather will feel more like summer with afternoon highs in the mid 80s, possibly upper 80s for West Alabama. The humidity will also remain rather high as tropical air lingers across the state.

NEXT WEEK: Yet another tropical low will move across the Gulf of Mexico next week. You can see the system now east of the Bahamas (watch the video)… most models develop this into a tropical storm by early next week across the southern Gulf of Mexico on the journey westward. The GFS moves this across the Yucatan peninsula, and eventually into the Mexican coast well south of Brownsville, Texas by the middle of next week with only modest strengthening. The Canadian model remains the most aggressive, and shows a significant in the Southwest Gulf by mid-week. For now it looks like this thing will remain well to the south of Alabama.

Around here, unfortunately the chance of widespread rain next week looks relatively small, with the polar jet remaining to the north, and the tropical easterlies to the south. Temperatures should remain above normal with highs mostly in the 80s.

LONG RANGE: Watch the video and see the 12Z GFS output for October 18-19… a very cold vortex sets up over eastern Canada, and the coldest air of the season drops all the way down into the Deep South. If this is correct, thickness values would suggest highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s. But, lets all say it together, this is voodoo right now. But, I love the thought of those kind of numbers after such a long, hot summer.

STORM ALERT XTREME: We hope to see you on Saturday, November 10 at the BJCC for our annual severe storm training session. Once again this year, the Alabama International Auto Show is a sponsor of Storm Alert XTREME, and it will be held at the BJCC. This is your chance to learn more about Alabama weather, and to be trained as a storm spotter. ABC 33/40 Meteorologist Brian Peters, long time WCM (Warning Coordination Meteorologist) for the National Weather Service in Birmingham, will teach a basic and advanced course on spotting small scale features within thunderstorms that are very important to meteorologists. Read more about Storm Alert XTREME here.

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