Freezing Rain Early Wednesday?

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It is alway a good idea to watch the Weather Xtreme video when we have complicated winter weather… the graphics always make it easier to tell the story….

THIS AFTERNOON: The warmest temperature so far at Birmingham has been 32 degrees… this is our coldest day since January 8 when the high was only 26. Most places north and east of Birmingham have not gotten out of the 20s. And, of course, the northwest wind has kept wind chill index values down in the teens for much of the afternoon.

TONIGHT: We will forecast an average low of 14 degrees tomorrow morning. But, long time readers know this is not a “one number” place on a clear, calm night. The wind will die down late tonight, and it should be near calm by daybreak tomorrow. That means we will be set up for radiational cooling, meaning the coldest air will sink down into the valleys. I fully expect places like Valley Head and Broomtown to be somewhere between 6 and 9 degrees early tomorrow.

You know the deal… take care of the elderly people you know that might not have an adequate source of heating, along with pets, plants, pipes, and husbands. Bring em in, ladies… it’s cold out there.

TOMORROW: Sunny and cold weather is the story… the high will be in the mid 30s, and the wind won’t be as bad as today. Then, another decent freeze comes up tomorrow night, with lows down in the low 20s by daybreak Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY MORNING ICE ISSUES? The new model data continues to support the idea of some freezing rain for parts of North and East Alabama Wednesday. The RPM suggests the main threat will come from about 7:00 a.m. until 2:00 p.m., when light rain is expected to fall with surface temperatures at or below freezing. This is due to a layer of warm, moist air going up and over the shallow layer of cold air near the surface (overrunning).

The RPM suggests the best chance of freezing rain Wednesday will be north of a line from Hamilton to Birmingham to Roanoke. The air looks too “warm” for freezing rain for places like Tuscaloosa, Greensboro, Eutaw, and Demopolis.

While the freezing rain should be light, it will certainly be enough to cause ice accumulation on bridges and overpasses, and some hazardous travel is very likely. The good news is that temperatures will warm quickly Wednesday evening as a warm front passes to the north, and this won’t be a long term issue. The ice shouldn’t be enough to bring down any trees or power lines, so bridge icing is our main concern at this point. We will keep a close eye on the situation and make adjustments to this forecast as needed.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These days look cloudy with rain possible at times as the front meanders across the Deep South. Thursday should be much warmer; the GFS is printing a high of 66 degrees in Birmingham Thursday. Then, the front drops south again by Thursday night, and by Friday we could be in the 40s much of the day with clouds and occasional light rain.

THE WEEKEND: A surface low will run from the Gulf of Mexico over to the South Atlantic coast Friday through Saturday. If the air was sufficiently cold, this can be a good snow setup for North Alabama. But, at this point, thermal values look a little too warm for any wintry precipitation. But, changes in the thickness values and surface low trajectory can make a big difference, so we will keep a close eye on the situation. But, for now, we will just mention a cool, rainy day on Saturday, followed by colder and drier air on Sunday.

COLD CHRISTMAS? The GFS ensembles are surely suggesting a cold Christmas, and the 12Z operational GFS hints at this as well. In fact, it shows a setup for possible snow flurries across Alabama Christmas Eve. See the Weather Xtreme video for details… still way too early for a specific Christmas forecast. We will be able to produce one late this week. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will do this week’s show as usual tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST… Colleen Coyle of WFAA in Dallas will be our guest, along with Dr. Mary Ann Cooper, who is a lightning expert. You can listen/watch live via uStream.

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I had a great time today visiting with the 3rd graders at Elvin Hill Elementary in Columbiana… be watching for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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