December Heat Wave Ahead

The Wednesday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available on the player below, and on iTunes:

The immediate problem this morning is fog… sure looks thick on our SKYCAM images. Lets take it easy out there.

WARM DECEMBER WEATHER: Once the fog burns off and the sun breaks out, we warm up nicely today and should reach the upper 60s this afternoon. Then, for tomorrow, Friday, and the weekend, the afternoon high will be mostly in the 70 to 73 degree range; a good 15 degrees above normal for mid-December in Alabama. And, in addition to being very mild, the weather will be dry. We see no rain through early next week.

COLD CHRISTMAS AHEAD? The GFS is really showing nice consistency in the long range, which gives some decent confidence in the general pattern as we approach Christmas. I get the idea Santa might feel right at home on Christmas day around here.

Our next rain event seems to want to arrive on Thursday December 21. This might be a good soaker; maybe even some strong storms involved. Then, we have a sharp change to colder on Friday December 22. Might be a day with highs only in the 40 to 45 degree range; that will really reel cold after a week of spring-like warmth.

The GFS brings another strong wave through the eastern U.S. trough, which sharpens it up again on Christmas Eve, December 24. This in turn delivers even colder air down into the Deep South for December 24-25. Watch the video for the day by day breakout, but for now the weather looks pretty cold on Christmas Day.

Anyone see the 18Z GFS run from yesterday? It painted a significant snow storm for the Deep South on Christmas Day. I WON’T EVEN GO THERE. The GFS is famous for bogus tropical systems at long range in the summer, and bogus winter storms at long range in the winter. Looks to me like the cold change will be similar to the cold change we had last week; it comes in two phases with little in the way of moisture in the cold air. But, hey, keep on dreaming. Who knows; this is all in voodoo land right now.

The NAO does show a negative pop around Christmas, which backs up this idea. But, it also goes positive right after Christmas which supports the idea of a quick warming trend in the period between Christmas and New Years Day.

BILL GRAY ON WEATHERBRAINS: I encourage all of you to listen to this week’s WeatherBrains podcast… Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University joins us and as always, he has some very interesting things to say. Next week, we will have Max Mayfield on the show as he talks about his NOAA career and his upcoming retirement at the National Hurricane Center.

LOTS OF INTERESTING WEATHER NEWS over on our sister site, weatherparty.com. Be sure and register and you can submit stories and vote on them.

I will be at Greystone Elementary in Hoover this morning, and then on to the office where I will have the next Weather Xtreme video loaded by 3:30 this afternoon. Have a great Wednesday!

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