Colder Air Returns Tomorrow

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THIS AFTERNOON: What a difference a day makes… yesterday we dealt with freezing rain and icy bridges; today we have a few places over West Alabama at 70 degrees (our SKYCAM site at Demopolis is right at 70 at 2:30). The cold air has “left the building”… even in Northeast Alabama where Gadsden is approaching 60 degrees. The air remains moist, and the radar shows a number of showers in progress across Central Alabama at mid-afternoon.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: The front, which is having a hard time finding a home, will move southward again tonight, putting Alabama back in colder air. We will be in the low 30s early tomorrow, and the high tomorrow afternoon will be in the mid 40s. A southwest flow aloft will overrun the shallow layer of cold air, so I don’t expect much sun tomorrow, although it might peek out a time or two. A few sprinkles are possible, but much of the day will be dry.

THE WEEKEND: Still an interesting forecast. And, certainly not clear-cut. A surface low will form in the northern Gulf tomorrow night; the models have trended weaker and more to the south with this feature, but we still expect some rain Saturday mainly along and south of I-20. The most widespread and heavier rain will be south of U.S. 80 (Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika).

The NAM suggests the rain-snow line will be very close to I-20 Saturday, so it remains possible a few snow flakes will be seen across North-Central Alabama, but confidence is low, and if we do see any snow, more than likely it won’t be much more than flurries. Still, we will keep a close eye on the situation and amend the forecast as needed as we approach the weekend.

Sunday will be mostly sunny and chilly with a high in the upper 40s. The low that was in the Gulf will be moving northeast, off the Atlantic coast, and has some potential to bring snow to places like Washington, DC and Baltimore Sunday.

CHRISTMAS WEEK: Generally speaking, the weather looks pretty benign. A disturbance will bring some risk of showers Tuesday, otherwise the week looks quiet with seasonal temperatures. Still some evidence we have one more shot of colder air that will arrive around Christmas, but the 12Z operation run of the GFS doesn’t look all that cold. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

VOODOO LAND: We note the NAO is trending neutral as we kick off the New Year, which could be a sign that a pattern change is in the cards. I get the idea that January won’t be as cold as December… but there is little skill in a monthly outlook; we will just have to wait and see.

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