Interesting Days Ahead

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Quite an interesting forecast for the next 10 to 15 days… seems like we have something for everyone here. Like a weather smorgasbord.

TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY: The big upper trough over the nation’s mid-section moves well north of Alabama and weakens tomorrow and Wednesday, but moisture levels will be increasing, and with the tail end of the system we will continue to mention a chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on both days. The wild card in the forecast is the tropical feature in the southern Gulf of Mexico northwest of the Yucatan; the GFS wants to move that moisture rapidly up into South Alabama within 48 hours. If this tropical connection is correct, the southern half of Alabama could see some pretty decent rain totals here tomorrow and Wednesday.

THURSDAY: This seems to be the day with the best chance of showers and storms statewide as a second upper trough approaches from the northwest. With good dynamic lift and deep tropical moisture, one inch of rain seems likely, and some communities could go over two inches. There is even a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms over the northern quarter of Alabama as the air becomes pretty unstable during the day. The best chance of showers and storms seems to be from about 9:00 a.m. Thursday to 6:00 a.m. Friday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS suggests the showers will end very early in the day Friday, with the sky becoming partly sunny. Then, a warm and dry weekend is ahead with a good supply of sunshine on Saturday and Sunday, along with highs in the 80 to 85 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS shows a bizarre solution that we pretty much reject; instead of a phased, deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. that would bring in the coolest air so far this season (we have seen that on the GFS for many days now), this run develops a remarkably deep upper low around Memphis, which hangs around all week with the primary polar flow up in Canada, which keeps the chilly air well to the north of Alabama. We won’t change our forecast based on this run, persistence in this case seems to be the best solution. I still think we have a chance of showers and storms on Monday of next week, followed by a very sharp change to cooler weather on Tuesday and Wednesday (8 to 9 days from now).

Sure nice to see all of this active weather… looks like we might be gearing up for an active severe weather season in November and December if this keeps up.

STORM ALERT XTREME: We hope to see you on Saturday, November 10 at the BJCC for our annual severe storm training session. Once again this year, the Alabama International Auto Show is a sponsor of Storm Alert XTREME, and it will be held at the BJCC. This is your chance to learn more about Alabama weather, and to be trained as a storm spotter. ABC 33/40 Meteorologist Brian Peters, long time WCM (Warning Coordination Meteorologist) for the National Weather Service in Birmingham, will teach a basic and advanced course on spotting small scale features within thunderstorms that are very important to meteorologists. Read more about Storm Alert XTREME here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a few show tonight, which will be available around 10:00 or so.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.

I sure enjoyed seeing the 1st graders today at Liberty Park Elementary in Vestavia… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

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